The Draconid Meteoroid Stream 2018: Prospects for Satellite Impact Detection

Predictions of the 2018 Draconid activity at the Earth and the Sun–Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points are presented. Numerical simulations of the meteoroids' ejection and evolution from comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner are performed with a careful implementation of the results analysis and weighting. Model meteoroid fluxes at Earth are derived using as calibration the main peak date, intensity, and shower profiles of previous Draconid outbursts. Good agreement between the model and measurements is found for the 1933, 1946, 1998, and 2011 showers for a meteoroid size distribution index at ejection of about 2.6. A less accurate estimate of the peak time for the 1985, 2005, and 2012 predominantly radio-observed outbursts was found by considering the contribution of individual ejection epochs, while the model peak flux estimate was found to agree with observations to within a factor of 3. Despite the promising geometrical configuration in 2018, our simulations predict low Draconid activity is expected on Earth, with a maximum of less than a few tens of meteors per hour around midnight of 2018 October 9, confirming previous models. At the L1 and L2 Lagrange points, however, the flux estimates suggest a "meteoroid storm." The Gaia spacecraft at the L2 region might be able to detect small (≈μg) Draconid meteoroid impacts centered in a two-hour window around 18h30m UT on the 2018 October 8.