Pre-operative clinical factors predict progression-free survival and tumor recurrence after initial surgery in patients with astrocytomas: a single-center analysis

Objective: Pre-operative predictive factors of progression-free survival (PFS) and tumor recurrence after initial surgery are important in counseling patients and decision making. Though PFS after initial surgery in patients with low grade astrocytomas has been described, little is described about PFS in patients with different tumor grades. Our objective was to investigate potential predictive factors of PFS, and devise a scale to predict PFS and tumor recurrence after initial surgery in patients with primary and recurrent astrocytomas of low and high tumor grades.

Methods: Clinical, radiographic, pathological and treatment data of 62 patients whose initial treatments of primary and recurrent astrocytomas were both surgeries were analyzed, and factors that had significant correlation with PFS was used to devise a scale.

Results: Factors significantly related with PFS were: the time from onset of symptoms to clinical and radiological diagnosis of astrocytomas (Spearman correlation coefficient r=0.298, significance level P=0.019) and with the symptoms of seizures (r=0.292, P=0.021). Patients with age between 30 and 40 years had significant longer PFS than the rest age group (P=0.018, oneway ANOVA). A simple scale (from 0 to 3 points) comprised of the three factors distinguished four groups of patients with significant different post-operative PFS (0 point, 8.0 months; 1 point, 13.7 months; 2 points, 18.0 months; 3 points, 34.5 months) (P=0.004, oneway ANOVA).

Conclusion: The simple scale we devised comprised of the three pre-operative prognostic factors can significantly distinguish patients with different post-operative survival after initial treatment of astrocytomas with surgery.